The $900 million Bitcoin (BTC) cycle rights will expire on May 12th, which may play a crucial role in determining whether Bitcoin prices will fall below the $27000 level.

The price of Bitcoin has been rejected again, at $30000

Bitcoin short orders will attempt to use macroeconomic policies to reverse the trend, the FUD of ancient Silk Road coins, and the uncertainty caused by the soaring transaction fees of Bitcoin, to lower the price of Bitcoin in the coming days.

On May 6th, the BTC/USD ratio increased by $29800, but due to stronger frictional resistance than expected, the market quickly changed.

Following the 8.2% two-day adjustment, the support point of $27400 was honed, and when investors assess the dynamics of the financial crisis and the potential harm to digital currencies, the trading arguments were organized horizontally.

In addition, Warren Buffett, a billionaire investor and user of Berkshire Hathaway Enterprise, is no longer optimistic about the economic growth of the United States. For the world economy, this kind of pessimism may well explain why some bitcoin trader decided to reduce the leverage ratio in the past week, thus reducing the probability of an increase of $30000.

Bitcoin Options: Double headed, overly optimistic

The published interest rate at the expiration of the right on May 12 is $900 million, but actually the data will be lower, because the estimated market price of empty orders is less than $28000.

The price of Bitcoin increased by 11.2% from April 9 to April 14. After trying the friction resistance of $31000, this trader became more and more blindly optimistic.

The subscription put ratio of 1.65 reflects the instability between the $560 million non mandatory liquidated damages and interest of $340 million put (put) options.

If the price of Bitcoin remains around $27500 on May 12th at 8:00 am UTC, then the value of these call (put) options will be only $11 million. Why this change occurs is because if the transaction price of Bitcoin after expiration is less than this level, the right to purchase Bitcoin for $28000 or $29000 is meaningless.

The purpose of Bitcoin duopoly is to balance the business scale with $28000

The following are the four most likely phenomena based on current market prices. On May 12th, the total number of option contracts used for both bullish and bearish tools varied depending on the expiration price.

The instability that benefits each party forms the fundamental theoretical profit:

  • Between $25000 and $27000:100 times bullish, 9900 times bearish. The bear team had good control of the situation and made a profit of $230 million.
  • Between $27000 and $28000:400 times bullish and 5000 times bearish. The net conclusion is beneficial for bearish (sold) specialized tools by $120 million.
  • Between $28000 and $29000:1500 times bullish and 2100 times bearish. Later, there was an equilibrium between put option and call option.
  • Between $29000 and $30000:3300 times bullish and 800 times bearish. The net conclusion is beneficial for bullish (bull market) special tools of $70 million.

This may roughly take into account the call option commonly used in call betting and the put option commonly used only in neutral to put trading. Nevertheless, this overly simplistic approach overlooks more complex investment advice.

For example, trader could have sold put option to further gain a good openness of Bitcoin at a certain price. Unfortunately, there is no simplest way to mitigate this impact.

Finally, after the bright operation of the Bitcoin Internet according to the design plan, the pressure on sales work subsided, resulting in a stable price of around $27500 for Bitcoin. Even so, trader should be cautious, because the short order is still in a stronger position after the option expires every week on Friday, which is beneficial to the negative fluctuation of price.

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